Mitigating Bias, Blindness, and Illusion in E&P Decision Making
This course begins by examining the types of bias, blindness, and illusion that affect us. Exercises, videos, examples, and discussions help illustrate how these exert themselves in our daily activities. We then address their role in the oil and gas industry via case studies that show their impact on decision-making. This is followed by a half-day, real-world exercise using data from an appraisal/development project to give participants practice in addressing bias, blindness, and illusion in their technical work. The course concludes by presenting a summary ‘toolkit’ with mitigation techniques that immediately can be applied to project work.
Decisions in E&P ventures are affected by bias, blindness, and illusion which creep into our analyses and interpretations. This two-day course examines the influence of these distortions and presents techniques that can be used to mitigate their impact:
- Bias refers to errors in thinking whereby interpretations and judgments are drawn in an illogical fashion.
- Blindness is the condition where we fail to see an unexpected event in plain sight.
- Illusion refers to misleading beliefs based on a false impression of reality.
All three can lead to poor decisions regarding which work to undertake, what issues to focus on, and whether to forge ahead or walk away from a project.
2. Blindness and Illusion
- Perceptual Blindness; Illusions of Knowledge, Potential, and Objectivity
- Anchoring, Availability, Confirmation, Framing, and Implicit Conditioning Biases
- Information, Overconfidence and Motivational Biases
4. Case Studies
- Heavy oil (thermal)
- Light oil (miscible gas injection)
- Liquids-rich shale
5. Real-World Exercise (half-day)
- Shale gas reservoir, or fractured carbonate reservoir
- Summary ‘Toolkit’
What Participants are saying in the course reviews:
- "New concepts and materials--lightbulb moment!"
- "Resonates through all of what we do."
- "Powerful use of industry examples."
- "Realistic exercises reinforce theory and concepts."
- "These ‘new’ tools will be part of my everyday thought processes and interactions."
Who Should Attend
Engineers, Geoscientists, Managers, Economists
1.6 CEUs (Continuing Education Units) awarded for this 2-day course.
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Creties Jenkins, Rose and Associates
Creties Jenkins is a Partner with Rose and Associates specializing in the characterization of unconventional reservoirs. Over the past decade he has conducted integrated studies, project reviews, and resource evaluations for 50+ companies and has taught 100+ industry courses and workshops. He has served as a technical editor, Distinguished Lecturer, and distinguished author for SPE and is a past president of the Energy Minerals Division of AAPG. Jenkins received a MS in Geology and a BS in Geological Engineering from the South Dakota School of Mines. He is a registered professional engineer and a registered professional geologist in Texas.