Trade War Leaves LNG Projects Vulnerable
China announced on Monday that it will raise the duty on imports of US LNG to 25% from the previous level of 10% in retaliation to the US increasing its tariffs on $200-billion worth of Chinese goods.
Rystad Energy forecasts that Chinese LNG demand will reach 95 mtpa in 2025, up from 53 mtpa in 2018. This would make China the world’s largest LNG importer. The US, on the other hand, is the fastest-growing LNG exporter thanks to strong Asian and Chinese demand. US export volumes are expected to nearly quadruple over the coming years, reaching 84 mtpa by 2025 based on currently sanctioned projects.
However, the increased tariffs will create additional headwinds for US LNG projects that are currently awaiting final investment decisions (FIDs). Our energy research and consultancy noted previously that if LNG prices continue to linger around their current low level for an extended period of time, some of the more expensive LNG projects could struggle to offer competitive terms to buyers—and this could result in FID deferrals.
Most of these projects need to secure long-term contracts in order to get financing for their development. China is expected to be one of the biggest contributors in sponsoring new LNG projects over the coming years, and there will be a reluctance to signing new deals with US projects as long as this trade war persists. For example, Cheniere and Sinopec agreed late last year on a 20-year deal that would supply 2 mtpa of LNG to China starting in 2023. This deal could have been signed once the trade tensions were resolved, but due to the heightened tensions, this has not happened.
China’s decision to impose tariffs on US LNG will make LNG projects outside of the US more attractive. As illustrated in the figure below, so-called oil-indexed gas contracts are more common in countries such as Australia, Qatar, Mozambique, and Papua New Guinea compared to the US, where indexing to the Henry Hub price is more prevalent.
This means that non-US projects are more competitive in terms of breakeven price (delivered), and that China therefore could have greater bargaining power when negotiating new contracts.
Commenting on the short-term outlook for the global gas market, Per Magnus Nysveen, Rystad Energy head of analysis, said,"US LNG export to China is already seriously affected by the 10% tariffs in effect from last year, and we expect it to continue to be so as long as the tariff is imposed.”
Sindre Knutsson is a senior analyst on the Rystad Gas Markets team. He may be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Anadarko Sanctions Mozambique LNG Project
The $20-billion FID is the largest ever for a sub-Saharan oil and gas project. The project’s location on the African east coast puts it in optimal position to sell LNG to the lucrative Asian market.
Inpex Inks Deal With Indonesia for Abadi LNG Project
The Japanese operator will submit a development plan to the Indonesian government within the next few weeks, with FID for the $20-billion project coming around 2022. Abadi LNG is projected to deliver 9.5 mtpa of LNG.
Shell Ships First LNG Cargo From Prelude
First cargo from the world’s largest floating LNG project comes in the midst of low LNG prices sparked by a global supply boost. Prelude is expected to produce 3.6 mtpa for Shell.
Don't miss out on the latest technology delivered to your email every two weeks. Sign up for the OGF newsletter. If you are not logged in, you will receive a confirmation email that you will need to click on to confirm you want to receive the newsletter.
18 June 2019
19 June 2019