Mitigating Bias, Blindness, and Illusions in E&P Decision Making

Disciplines: Management

Course Description

Decisions in E&P ventures are affected by Bias, Blindness, and Illusions (BBI) which permeate our analyses, interpretations and decisions. This one-day course examines the influence of these cognitive pitfalls and presents techniques that can be used to mitigate their impact. Bias refers to errors in thinking whereby interpretations and judgments are drawn in an illogical fashion. Blindness is the condition where we fail to see an unexpected event in plain sight. Illusions refer to misleading beliefs based on a false impression of reality. All three can lead to poor decisions regarding which work to undertake, what issues to focus on, and whether to forge ahead or walk away from a project.

This course begins by examining the types of BBI that affect us. Awareness exercises, videos, industry examples, and mitigation exercises help illustrate how these manifest themselves and how we can lessen their impact. We then present oil and gas case studies that show their impact on decision-making and ask participants to identify the types of cognitive errors contributing to project outcomes. The course concludes with a mitigation ‘toolkit’ that can be applied to project work.

Course Outline

Introduction
Bias

a. Anchoring, Availability, Confirmation, Framing, Information, and Overconfidence

b. Motivational Bias
Blindness and Illusion

a. Perceptual Blindness

b. Illusions of Knowledge, Potential, and Objectivity
Case Studies

a. Exploration

b. Appraisal/Development
Mitigation "Toolkit"

Learning Level

Introductory

Course Length

1 Day

Why Attend

Participants have commented upon completion that the information in the course:

Resonates through all of what they do
Makes powerful use of industry examples
Provides ‘new’ tools that will be part of their everyday thought processes and interactions

Who Attends

The course is intended for anyone interested in understanding and lessening the impact of these cognitive errors in their work including geoscientists, engineers, managers, and executives.

CEUs

0.8 CEUs (Continuing Education Units) are awarded for this 1-day course.

Cancellation Policy

All cancellations must be received no later than 14 days prior to the course start date. Cancellations made after the 14-day window will not be refunded. Refunds will not be given due to no show situations.

Training sessions attached to SPE conferences and workshops follow the cancellation policies stated on the event information page. Please check that page for specific cancellation information.

SPE reserves the right to cancel or re-schedule courses at will. Notification of changes will be made as quickly as possible; please keep this in mind when arranging travel, as SPE is not responsible for any fees charged for cancelling or changing travel arrangements.

We reserve the right to substitute course instructors as necessary.

Instructor

None

Creties D. Jenkins (P.E., P.G.) has over 30 years of industry experience, having worked for Tenneco, ARCO, and DeGolyer & MacNaughton before joining Rose and Associates in 2013. He specializes in the characterization of unconventional reservoirs, including tight sandstones and carbonates, shales, and coals. Creties has conducted integrated studies, peer reviews, resource assessment work and training for more than 50 companies around the world. He has also conducted more than 100 industry courses and workshops over the past decade focused on the exploration, appraisal, and development of tight oil and gas reservoirs.

Creties has served as a technical editor, distinguished lecturer, and distinguished author for SPE and is a recent recipient of AAPG’s Distinguished Service Award. He is a co-author of SPEE Monograph 4: Estimating Ultimate Recovery of Developed Wells in Low-Permeability Reservoirs (2016) and led the 2017 Multi-disciplinary Summit: Building and Applying the Universal Workflow for Low Permeability Oil and Gas Reservoirs. Creties received a BSc in Geological Engineering and a MSc in Geology from the South Dakota School of Mines. He is a partner in Rose & Associates, LLP.

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